The results are in and while many Trump supporters (myself included) have to be disappointed with the results the sharp divergence from what happened with what the polls were saying (more on this in a later post once we have … Continue reading At This Point: Even If Biden Wins, Progressives Lose
With early voting ending across the country today and reports of increased turnout all across the nation the stars seem aligned for a massive Trump defeat. After – all, conventional wisdom holds increased turnout signals the end of the GOP … Continue reading Why Increased Turnout Does Not Equal The End For Trump
As the days leading up to the 2020 election shrink, prognosticators are already predicting the future. Diversity loving neo-liberals like Ronald Brownstein are already going full steam ahead on the GOP coalition’s xenophobic, rapidly shrinking base will find itself increasing … Continue reading Why Trump’s Populism (If Not Rhetoric) Is The Future Of The GOP
Predictably, national polls have shown the Presidential race tighten as voter models and screens have been firmed up. For the first time in months the President actually took the lead in the RCP average in Florida. More importantly though the … Continue reading Why Trump’s Best Shot In The Rust Belt Remains Pennsylvania
There are no certainties in politics. Just ask Clinton circa 2016. But, for most of 2020 the presidential election has been defined by a steady Biden lead nationally and in battleground states across the country. Yet, that lead has shrunk … Continue reading Election Night Could Be Decided Early If These Two Things Happen
Most national polls show Democrats set to utterly crush Republicans at almost every level of governance in November. Polls show Joe Biden is a clear favorite for the Presidency, Democrats lead in key Senate contests and by all rights Joe … Continue reading Some Signs Don’t Point To A Democratic Wave
Republicans are freaking out. Literally. Polls are showing Biden is set to win a bigger percentage of the popular vote than Clinton did in 1996 (and that was with a major third party candidate on the ballot). In Florida, Quinnipiac … Continue reading Revisiting the Polls vs. Horse Race Narrative
Stop me if you have heard this before: Trump will lose, Biden is riding high in the polls, Trump campaign is pulling backs on ads, etc. Polling continues to show, minus outliers, Biden is polling extremely well in battleground states … Continue reading Three Reasons Why Trump Could Lose
At the start of the summer Donald Trump’s campaign was battered with bad news. Polling showed him underwater among virtually every group except non-college educated whites, his Senate GOP counterparts were trailing in their quest to hold the Senate and … Continue reading How Trump Clawed His Way Back
Over at CNN, Harry Enten wrote “Why it could be a Biden blowout in November.” The article checked all the boxes for evidence to back up the assertion along with the required caveat. But, on the other hand, while polls … Continue reading The 2020 Election Is A Coin Flip
American Watchmen 