A number of recent surveys and reports of 2020 have raised eyebrows. While national and state level polls show Joe Biden with a steady lead over President Trump less than two months from Election Day, registration figures from a number … Continue reading Are Modern US Polls Equipped To Detect Electoral Changes?
As we get closer and closer to November, the number of polls proliferate, and everybody is spitting out statistical and anecdotal analysis, it is important to revisit how the lessons from 2016 exit polls should be kept in mind when … Continue reading Beware The Polls And Analysis
FiveThirtyEight is probably the biggest cheerleader for trying to explain how Biden’s lead is different than Clinton’s 80 days out from the election. I’ll let the readers decide for themselves. But, while it is true Biden has better favorable numbers … Continue reading Biden’s Lead Is Shrinking In The States: That’s Not Good
The surrounding horse-race narrative driven by the media around November is it will be a hard-fought nailbiter. The polls on the other hand all show a single trend line – Joe Biden is winning and not looking back. We can … Continue reading Why The Direction Of The Polls Should Worry Us
If you believe the polling numbers coming out of the battle for the White House and Senate it looks pretty unlikely Republicans will hold any branch of government come January. Poll after poll spit out from non-partisan and partisan pollsters … Continue reading What To Believe: The Polls or Horse Race News?
In 2016, the states of New York and California gave Clinton a 3 million vote advantage in the popular vote. Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by around 2.8 million. Come 2020, those states will contribute millions to Biden’s … Continue reading As Bad As The Polls Are For Trump, They Show Why He Is Tough To Beat
While the media is intently focused on the race for the House and Senate, down-ballot contests such as gubernatorial and state legislature battles have garnered less attention. But, increasingly, Republicans are worrying the impact of the midterms could sweep them … Continue reading The Real Battle of 2018: The States
Amid the Democrats distraught and Republicans joy over the election is a hidden message that whispers, “Adapt or die.” Donald Trump’s election may have represented a tectonic shift in the politics of the nation, eliminating long-time political topography, but both … Continue reading Both Republicans and Democrats Face Difficult Choices Ahead
In 2002, “The Emerging Democratic Majority” was published. Written by Democratic strategists John Judis and Ruy Texiera, the book alleged that a modern Democratic majority was brewing composed of college educated whites, minorities and urban, affluent voters. Despite a hiccup … Continue reading Why Identity Politics Failed Clinton
Tomorrow. not only will the Presidential election, fate of the US Senate, and 435 Congressional contests be decided but also hundreds of legislative contests, a dozen gubernatorial contests and major statewide ballot initiatives ranging from marijuana legalization to assisted suicide. … Continue reading Decision 2016: What To Expect Tomorrow