Stop me if you have heard this before: Trump will lose, Biden is riding high in the polls, Trump campaign is pulling backs on ads, etc. Polling continues to show, minus outliers, Biden is polling extremely well in battleground states … Continue reading Three Reasons Why Trump Could Lose
At the start of the summer Donald Trump’s campaign was battered with bad news. Polling showed him underwater among virtually every group except non-college educated whites, his Senate GOP counterparts were trailing in their quest to hold the Senate and … Continue reading How Trump Clawed His Way Back
Over at CNN, Harry Enten wrote “Why it could be a Biden blowout in November.” The article checked all the boxes for evidence to back up the assertion along with the required caveat. But, on the other hand, while polls … Continue reading The 2020 Election Is A Coin Flip
To some, it will appear Trump’s Convention Bounce has faded. Or that Biden is building on his lead. But, a slate of recent battleground state surveys have shown Biden’s lead in these states is growing (at least in the polls) … Continue reading The New Divergence In The Polls
As we get closer and closer to November, the number of polls proliferate, and everybody is spitting out statistical and anecdotal analysis, it is important to revisit how the lessons from 2016 exit polls should be kept in mind when … Continue reading Beware The Polls And Analysis
In recent weeks, despite national polls showing Biden maintaining his edge, most pundits consider the race has tightened. Indeed, the Biden campaign implicitly admitted the race was narrowing by having their candidate come out of the basement and campaign in-person. … Continue reading It’s Like Trump Suddenly Wants To Win
In Politico, Tim Alberta posits an interesting question about what the GOP stands for. Minus the usual liberal elitism of “I don’t get it” and then going to other elites (Frank Luntz) and acting like Luntz isn’t an elite the … Continue reading Republicans Have Ideas – The Media Just Refuses To See Them
The surrounding horse-race narrative driven by the media around November is it will be a hard-fought nailbiter. The polls on the other hand all show a single trend line – Joe Biden is winning and not looking back. We can … Continue reading Why The Direction Of The Polls Should Worry Us
Leaving aside ideology, the make-up of the Supreme Court and legislative actions over the next two years, there is an argument to be made some Republicans should be hoping Trump loses in November, even if it gives Democrats unified control … Continue reading Should Republicans Be Hoping Trump Loses in November?
If you believe the polling numbers coming out of the battle for the White House and Senate it looks pretty unlikely Republicans will hold any branch of government come January. Poll after poll spit out from non-partisan and partisan pollsters … Continue reading What To Believe: The Polls or Horse Race News?