I feel a tad awkward focusing on a single poll when I have been so harsh on them but in this case the poll – the most recent WashPo/ABC survey – fits two molds. First – off, it screens Likely … Continue reading Battlegrounds Tilt Right
I’ve been harsh on the polling industry, and until I see some sort of methodological changes and admittance their industry has issues I will continue to be. I have written numerous articles on the polling industry’s struggles and likelihood this … Continue reading The Polls Need To Be Right This Year
At this point in the run – up to Labor Day Weekend, the narrative of a GOP wave has flipped (at least among the MSM and punditry) to more of a puddle. You can also take the unhinged rantings of … Continue reading Almost The Entire Difference In The Generic Ballot Polls Can Be Explained In Their Samples
Republicans had high hopes heading into Tuesday night. While it was widely expected Republicans would easily carry the open 23rd CD a tightly contested battle was being fought in the 19th. Now, the usual caveats are in order here. First, … Continue reading NY 19 Is A Wake – Up Call To Republicans
In recent weeks, with a spate of optimistic polling for Democrats and Trump aligned Republicans winning their primaries (the love for Liz Cheney is optimistic considering the media fed the meme of Dick Cheney being the Emperor from Star Wars) has given the party renewed optimism. This optimism is not just fed by polling and candidate quality but also legislative successes (well, what they call successes). First, Democrats passed with a majority of GOP support a bipartisanship CHIPS bill. Then, right after, Democrats unveiled their reconciliation passed Inflation Reduction Act (Note: It just passed and no respectable economist expects it … Continue reading Oh, How One Can Hope
Stop me if you have heard this one before…. there is a lack of high quality polling for the 2022 election. What polling we do have is mostly party internals, mostly from the party in power, pointing to how things … Continue reading 2022 Is Looking Like The Doppelganger of Yesteryear’s Elections
Since the Fall of last year. every indicator has shown this November will be a wave election. What started as Biden incompetence related to the withdrawal in Afghanistan has morphed in the following months into rapid inflation and sky high … Continue reading Every Indicator Points To A Red Wave
Historically, elections can generally be predicted on three macro metrics, 1) Presidential approval ratings, 2) the direction of the country’s numbers and 3) the generic ballot. In recent years, a majority of voters have reported the country being in the … Continue reading The Generic Ballot Is Bad for Democrats, I mean REALLY BAD!!!
It is hard to not over emphasize how important redistricting is to the political fortunes of state and national political parties. Coming into the election cycle, Republicans had complete control to draw 187 district compared to a mere 75 for … Continue reading How Is Redistricting Going So Far???
Historically, midterm environments are difficult for the President’s party. Since 1980, only two midterms have seen the President’s party gain seats (1998 and 2002) and the gains were marginal. Contrast this with the results of other midterms like 1994 (-54 … Continue reading It’s Hard to Envision 2022 Getting Any Worse For Democrats