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Tag: polls

Elections, PoliticsLeave a comment

2021 Polling Is Telling Us The Industry Is Broken

May 2, 2021 Gabe Iacoboni

By most approval polls Joe Biden is sailing high. Despite having a record low approval at 100 days (minus Trump who nobody else may ever reach), it is explained away as a result of partisanship and most voters being inelastic. … Continue reading 2021 Polling Is Telling Us The Industry Is Broken

Elections, PoliticsLeave a comment

Revisiting the Polls vs. Horse Race Narrative

October 14, 2020 Gabe Iacoboni

Republicans are freaking out. Literally. Polls are showing Biden is set to win a bigger percentage of the popular vote than Clinton did in 1996 (and that was with a major third party candidate on the ballot). In Florida, Quinnipiac … Continue reading Revisiting the Polls vs. Horse Race Narrative

Elections, PoliticsLeave a comment

The New Divergence In The Polls

September 20, 2020 Gabe Iacoboni

To some, it will appear Trump’s Convention Bounce has faded. Or that Biden is building on his lead. But, a slate of recent battleground state surveys have shown Biden’s lead in these states is growing (at least in the polls) … Continue reading The New Divergence In The Polls

Data Analysis, Elections, PoliticsLeave a comment

Beware The Polls And Analysis

September 11, 2020 Gabe Iacoboni

As we get closer and closer to November, the number of polls proliferate, and everybody is spitting out statistical and anecdotal analysis, it is important to revisit how the lessons from 2016 exit polls should be kept in mind when … Continue reading Beware The Polls And Analysis

Data Analysis, Elections, PoliticsLeave a comment

What Would Happen If Today If The Polls Swung Like 2016

September 2, 2020 Gabe Iacoboni

There is common perception among pundits and the public the polls were hugely wrong in 2016.  To be fair, I have been extremely harsh on pollsters recently for past failures in 2018 and their samples for this year.  I can … Continue reading What Would Happen If Today If The Polls Swung Like 2016

Elections, PoliticsLeave a comment

Biden’s Lead Is Shrinking In The States: That’s Not Good

August 18, 2020 Gabe Iacoboni

FiveThirtyEight is probably the biggest cheerleader for trying to explain how Biden’s lead is different than Clinton’s 80 days out from the election.  I’ll let the readers decide for themselves.  But, while it is true Biden has better favorable numbers … Continue reading Biden’s Lead Is Shrinking In The States: That’s Not Good

Elections, PoliticsLeave a comment

Why The Direction Of The Polls Should Worry Us

August 4, 2020 Gabe Iacoboni

The surrounding horse-race narrative driven by the media around November is it will be a hard-fought nailbiter.  The polls on the other hand all show a single trend line – Joe Biden is winning and not looking back.  We can … Continue reading Why The Direction Of The Polls Should Worry Us

Elections, PoliticsLeave a comment

What To Believe: The Polls or Horse Race News?

June 18, 2020 Gabe Iacoboni

If you believe the polling numbers coming out of the battle for the White House and Senate it looks pretty unlikely Republicans will hold any branch of government come January.  Poll after poll spit out from non-partisan and partisan pollsters … Continue reading What To Believe: The Polls or Horse Race News?

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What Is With Trump’s Polling Numbers: Should He Be Worried

April 22, 2020 Gabe Iacoboni

Ever since the Corona-Virus pandemic hit America, much of the average American’s life has changed.  In most states you can’t go the gym, dine in, or go to work (hence 22 million unemployment claims since the end of March).  In … Continue reading What Is With Trump’s Polling Numbers: Should He Be Worried

Data Analysis, Elections, PoliticsLeave a comment

The State of Trump’s Reelection 18 Months Out

June 17, 2019 Gabe Iacoboni

All things considered, I’d rather be a challenger than an incumbent hovering under 50 approval amid a roaring economy.  A sprawling Democratic field should allow an incumbent President to focus on the merits of his tenure.  But then again, no … Continue reading The State of Trump’s Reelection 18 Months Out

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