The surrounding horse-race narrative driven by the media around November is it will be a hard-fought nailbiter. The polls on the other hand all show a single trend line – Joe Biden is winning and not looking back. We can … Continue reading Why The Direction Of The Polls Should Worry Us
If you believe the polling numbers coming out of the battle for the White House and Senate it looks pretty unlikely Republicans will hold any branch of government come January. Poll after poll spit out from non-partisan and partisan pollsters … Continue reading What To Believe: The Polls or Horse Race News?
Ever since the Corona-Virus pandemic hit America, much of the average American’s life has changed. In most states you can’t go the gym, dine in, or go to work (hence 22 million unemployment claims since the end of March). In … Continue reading What Is With Trump’s Polling Numbers: Should He Be Worried
All things considered, I’d rather be a challenger than an incumbent hovering under 50 approval amid a roaring economy. A sprawling Democratic field should allow an incumbent President to focus on the merits of his tenure. But then again, no … Continue reading The State of Trump’s Reelection 18 Months Out
The rise of the Hispanic vote has been the white whale of both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats have claimed they will fuel a blue America while Republicans argue their whitening and culturally conservative values will turn them to the right. … Continue reading Hispanics And Trump: Say What?
With everything surrounding the Brett Kavanaugh “Salem Witch Trials” and more and more Republican held seats “coming online” (parlance for competitive) the electoral landscape for the majority party is looking decidedly dark. Texas and West Virginia, of all places, are … Continue reading If The Polls Are Off It’s Good News For Republicans
As the dust from the California primary settles and the hot-takes from the results flow in (see mine here) the general consensus is that while things are looking up for Republicans the battle for the House remains an uphill slog. … Continue reading The Battle For The House Is Now A Toss-Up
By now, most pundits are predicting a wave election. The most optimistic analysis from non-partisan experts is the House is at best 50/50 for the GOP and heavy losses are expected. The number of legislative seats Democrats have flipped, the … Continue reading Fight For The House Is Still An Uphill Climb For Democrats
Democrats seem to have everything going for them. They are winning special elections, have a massive lead in the generic ballot, are witnessing the GOP imploding under Trump and have a base excited to deliver a message to Trump next … Continue reading Democrats Are Falling Into The Cultural Trap
Back in 2010, electoral politics in the UK seemed fairly consistent. Labour had a small but steady majority in Parliament, the Tories were the minority and the Liberal Democrats were the fringe. But then the Tories took power in 2010 … Continue reading What’s Up With That UK Election Thing?