Republicans are freaking out. Literally. Polls are showing Biden is set to win a bigger percentage of the popular vote than Clinton did in 1996 (and that was with a major third party candidate on the ballot). In Florida, Quinnipiac … Continue reading Revisiting the Polls vs. Horse Race Narrative
To some, it will appear Trump’s Convention Bounce has faded. Or that Biden is building on his lead. But, a slate of recent battleground state surveys have shown Biden’s lead in these states is growing (at least in the polls) … Continue reading The New Divergence In The Polls
As we get closer and closer to November, the number of polls proliferate, and everybody is spitting out statistical and anecdotal analysis, it is important to revisit how the lessons from 2016 exit polls should be kept in mind when … Continue reading Beware The Polls And Analysis
There is common perception among pundits and the public the polls were hugely wrong in 2016. To be fair, I have been extremely harsh on pollsters recently for past failures in 2018 and their samples for this year. I can … Continue reading What Would Happen If Today If The Polls Swung Like 2016
FiveThirtyEight is probably the biggest cheerleader for trying to explain how Biden’s lead is different than Clinton’s 80 days out from the election. I’ll let the readers decide for themselves. But, while it is true Biden has better favorable numbers … Continue reading Biden’s Lead Is Shrinking In The States: That’s Not Good
The surrounding horse-race narrative driven by the media around November is it will be a hard-fought nailbiter. The polls on the other hand all show a single trend line – Joe Biden is winning and not looking back. We can … Continue reading Why The Direction Of The Polls Should Worry Us
If you believe the polling numbers coming out of the battle for the White House and Senate it looks pretty unlikely Republicans will hold any branch of government come January. Poll after poll spit out from non-partisan and partisan pollsters … Continue reading What To Believe: The Polls or Horse Race News?
Ever since the Corona-Virus pandemic hit America, much of the average American’s life has changed. In most states you can’t go the gym, dine in, or go to work (hence 22 million unemployment claims since the end of March). In … Continue reading What Is With Trump’s Polling Numbers: Should He Be Worried
All things considered, I’d rather be a challenger than an incumbent hovering under 50 approval amid a roaring economy. A sprawling Democratic field should allow an incumbent President to focus on the merits of his tenure. But then again, no … Continue reading The State of Trump’s Reelection 18 Months Out
The rise of the Hispanic vote has been the white whale of both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats have claimed they will fuel a blue America while Republicans argue their whitening and culturally conservative values will turn them to the right. … Continue reading Hispanics And Trump: Say What?