Last week, I wrote about reading into the tea leaves of the early vote. Now, I want to take a counterfactual approach and lay out some reasons why we should always be skeptical of the early data using some notable … Continue reading Reading Into The Tea Leaves Part II
Predictably, national polls have shown the Presidential race tighten as voter models and screens have been firmed up. For the first time in months the President actually took the lead in the RCP average in Florida. More importantly though the … Continue reading Why Trump’s Best Shot In The Rust Belt Remains Pennsylvania
At the start of the summer Donald Trump’s campaign was battered with bad news. Polling showed him underwater among virtually every group except non-college educated whites, his Senate GOP counterparts were trailing in their quest to hold the Senate and … Continue reading How Trump Clawed His Way Back
Readers can consider this the inaugural edition of the Grab Bag, a set of articles focusing on recent electoral news and events. The goal of this Bag is to educate readers on the lesser stories of 2019 and 2020 while … Continue reading Grab Bag: Conservative Upset In Wisconsin, Republicans Continue To Suffer In The Suburbs and Trump and Hispanics, Really?
Democrats are ecstatic after PA-18’s results where at worse the party is set to have made Republicans sweat a dark red seat and at best narrowly stolen a strongly Trump seat. Combined with Democratic performances in other special elections it … Continue reading Reading The Tea Leaves Of PA-18
In the last few weeks, nothing has rocked the political world more than the Pennsylvania Supreme Court stepping in and redrawing the state’s “unfair” GOP drawn Congressional maps. For historical context, the maps were drawn after the GOP wave of … Continue reading The Dangers of Undoing Gerrymandering
Heading into next year, Democrats will be defending the Senate map from hell. Twenty-five of the 33 Senate seats up next year’s Senate class are held by the party while Republicans will only be defending eight. This dangerous over-extension for … Continue reading Can Republicans Count On Partisanship To Carry The Senate Next Year?
Last week, Republicans in the Virginia House of Delegates floated a bill to change the state from a winner take all state in the Electoral College to one that doles out votes by Congressional district (similar to Nebraska’s). The idea … Continue reading Republicans Should Be Careful About Changing The Electoral College
Republicans have struggled to win Presidential elections in Pennsylvania. But, they have shown a continual ability to win other contests down-ballot. Witness then Republican Senator Arlen Specter’s nine point victory in 2004 even as George Bush was losing the state … Continue reading Pennsylvania: Where the Senate Was Won
It’s become an oddity in an era of bitter partisanship. The voter who will vote for a candidate with a D next to his/her name and an R next to his/her name. They’re ticket-splitters and they have become less and … Continue reading The GOP Senate Majority Rests on Ticket Splitting