Historically, elections can generally be predicted on three macro metrics, 1) Presidential approval ratings, 2) the direction of the country’s numbers and 3) the generic ballot. In recent years, a majority of voters have reported the country being in the … Continue reading The Generic Ballot Is Bad for Democrats, I mean REALLY BAD!!!
It is hard to not over emphasize how important redistricting is to the political fortunes of state and national political parties. Coming into the election cycle, Republicans had complete control to draw 187 district compared to a mere 75 for … Continue reading How Is Redistricting Going So Far???
The last two weeks of news have not proven to be kind to House Democrats political future. It didn’t look that way to start. Earlier last week, the Census Bureau released revised population figures likely to be used (once finalized) … Continue reading Democratic Prospects of Holding The House in 22′ Keep Getting Dimmer
It’s little secret the Donald Trump era for the GOP was both good and bad electorally. Trump furthered inroads with rural voters for the GOP in 2016 and 2020 but he also cost the party invaluable support in growing metro … Continue reading The TX – 6 Special Election Results Don’t Bode Well for Red District Suburban Democrats
Over at CNN, Harry Enten took an an early look at the 2022 midterms and finds for all the doom and gloom of a party in the throes of white nationalism, the GOP seems to be well positioned. Enten bases … Continue reading Early Signs Look Good For GOP Heading Into 2022
The NYT (try not to laugh) led with a story last week about Republicans being unable to stall the Democrats $1.9 trillion Stimulus bill. The story stated Republicans have laid out a number of attacks on the bill from it … Continue reading 2021 Mirrors 2009
Republicans narrowly escaped another squeaker, this one out of OH-12. Democratic Danny O’Conner narrowly trails Republican Troy Balderson and despite as close as Democrats came they yet again seem not able to close the deal. I will get to why … Continue reading OH-12 Did Not Tell Us Anything We Did Not Already Know
It is easy to overlook in our era of hyper-polarized politics that not every voter is a lock-step Republican or Democrat. These “swing voters” have long been described as the ultimate deciders in elections. So who are they and who … Continue reading The Key Swing Voter: The Obama/Trump Voter
Democrats have an eight point lead on the generic ballot. Yet, Trump is more popular than he has ever been. Over 50 Democratic challengers outraised their GOP counterparts. Yet, the RNC outraised the DNC and GOP SuperPACs raked in record … Continue reading The 2018 Midterms Are Not Looking Like A Wave Yet
While Democrats have scored notable successes in majority white states like Oklahoma, Missouri and NY State, in majority-white districts with many college graduates, there is one notable set of places where they have surprisingly struggled to make gains-Hispanic-majority districts. In … Continue reading The GOP House Majority Might Be Saved In The Unlikeliest Of Places