For all the heartbreak Republicans have seen this election, there are some bright spots in late breaking contests. In prior years, wave elections or not, Republicans have seen late breaking contests go against them from California to NY State. But … Continue reading 2022 A Reversal From Prior Elections
Shellacking. Disaster. Wasteful. All those terms come to mind when it comes to the 2022 midterms where the GOP underperformed. At least at the national level. As of this writing the GOP is going to lose a net of one … Continue reading Recapping the 2022 Midterms
Last week, I wrote about reading into the tea leaves of the early vote. Now, I want to take a counterfactual approach and lay out some reasons why we should always be skeptical of the early data using some notable … Continue reading Reading Into The Tea Leaves Part II
I feel like virtually every article I have recently written (last few months) is about how the polls are underestimating Republicans. This is based on solid polling misses from 2014 onward which have found numerous Republicans in competitive contests when … Continue reading Are The Polls Now Overestimating Republicans???
I feel a tad awkward focusing on a single poll when I have been so harsh on them but in this case the poll – the most recent WashPo/ABC survey – fits two molds. First – off, it screens Likely … Continue reading Battlegrounds Tilt Right
I’ve been harsh on the polling industry, and until I see some sort of methodological changes and admittance their industry has issues I will continue to be. I have written numerous articles on the polling industry’s struggles and likelihood this … Continue reading The Polls Need To Be Right This Year
Republicans had high hopes heading into Tuesday night. While it was widely expected Republicans would easily carry the open 23rd CD a tightly contested battle was being fought in the 19th. Now, the usual caveats are in order here. First, … Continue reading NY 19 Is A Wake – Up Call To Republicans
In recent weeks, with a spate of optimistic polling for Democrats and Trump aligned Republicans winning their primaries (the love for Liz Cheney is optimistic considering the media fed the meme of Dick Cheney being the Emperor from Star Wars) has given the party renewed optimism. This optimism is not just fed by polling and candidate quality but also legislative successes (well, what they call successes). First, Democrats passed with a majority of GOP support a bipartisanship CHIPS bill. Then, right after, Democrats unveiled their reconciliation passed Inflation Reduction Act (Note: It just passed and no respectable economist expects it … Continue reading Oh, How One Can Hope
Stop me if you have heard this one before…. there is a lack of high quality polling for the 2022 election. What polling we do have is mostly party internals, mostly from the party in power, pointing to how things … Continue reading 2022 Is Looking Like The Doppelganger of Yesteryear’s Elections
Since the Fall of last year. every indicator has shown this November will be a wave election. What started as Biden incompetence related to the withdrawal in Afghanistan has morphed in the following months into rapid inflation and sky high … Continue reading Every Indicator Points To A Red Wave
American Watchmen 