Much has been made of the polls missing 2020, not just nationally but in close swing states. Digging deeper into the numbers, looking at individual precincts in recent months, has shown that Donald Trump massively increased his margins not just … Continue reading What Do We Make Of Trump’s Overperformance with Hispanics
Readers can consider this the inaugural edition of the Grab Bag, a set of articles focusing on recent electoral news and events. The goal of this Bag is to educate readers on the lesser stories of 2019 and 2020 while … Continue reading Grab Bag: Conservative Upset In Wisconsin, Republicans Continue To Suffer In The Suburbs and Trump and Hispanics, Really?
The rise of the Hispanic vote has been the white whale of both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats have claimed they will fuel a blue America while Republicans argue their whitening and culturally conservative values will turn them to the right. … Continue reading Hispanics And Trump: Say What?
Democrats in Texas on Tuesday were supposed to be celebrating. Not fretting. But fretting they are now that a Democratic state senate district which supported Clinton by 12 points and has not had a Republican represent it since Reconstruction flipped … Continue reading Democrats Hope For A Wave Fueled By Hispanic Turnout Died In Texas Tuesday
While Democrats have scored notable successes in majority white states like Oklahoma, Missouri and NY State, in majority-white districts with many college graduates, there is one notable set of places where they have surprisingly struggled to make gains-Hispanic-majority districts. In … Continue reading The GOP House Majority Might Be Saved In The Unlikeliest Of Places
It’s a well-established but little know fact that Obama would have won in 2012 even if the electorate resembled 2004 in demographic and partisan categories. Indeed, Obama’s 2012 reelection charted a different path than his 2008 election bid. Obama did … Continue reading Where the Obama Coalition Failed Clinton
If you had a sense of déjà vu about this election you would be forgiven. Since mid-August when Trump has climbed into contention with Clinton nationally and risen in the polls in battleground states such as Ohio and Florida we … Continue reading Now It Is Democrats Turn To Argue The Polls Are Biased