This weekend I came across an article from Doug Schoen hypothesizing DeSantis peaked too early in the run-up to 24 and comparing him to another, once frontrunner, former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. As with any article it has its strong … Continue reading Did DeSantis Peak Too Early?
Last week, I wrote about reading into the tea leaves of the early vote. Now, I want to take a counterfactual approach and lay out some reasons why we should always be skeptical of the early data using some notable … Continue reading Reading Into The Tea Leaves Part II
It is hard to not over emphasize how important redistricting is to the political fortunes of state and national political parties. Coming into the election cycle, Republicans had complete control to draw 187 district compared to a mere 75 for … Continue reading How Is Redistricting Going So Far???
Hot off the heels of a successful 2020 house campaign, House Republicans see an electoral map tilted toward them in 2022 due to a successful 2020, President Trump’s ouster and a number of legislative victories down – ballot leaving them … Continue reading Republicans House Prospects In 2022 Are Looking Pretty Rosy
There are no certainties in politics. Just ask Clinton circa 2016. But, for most of 2020 the presidential election has been defined by a steady Biden lead nationally and in battleground states across the country. Yet, that lead has shrunk … Continue reading Election Night Could Be Decided Early If These Two Things Happen
At the start of the summer Donald Trump’s campaign was battered with bad news. Polling showed him underwater among virtually every group except non-college educated whites, his Senate GOP counterparts were trailing in their quest to hold the Senate and … Continue reading How Trump Clawed His Way Back
For as long as I can remember, Florida has been considered the perennial battleground state. Like Ohio, the state has voted for the winning Presidential candidate since the new Millenium. But, the state known for Hanging Chads and giving George … Continue reading Is Florida Still A Battleground?
Democrats in Texas on Tuesday were supposed to be celebrating. Not fretting. But fretting they are now that a Democratic state senate district which supported Clinton by 12 points and has not had a Republican represent it since Reconstruction flipped … Continue reading Democrats Hope For A Wave Fueled By Hispanic Turnout Died In Texas Tuesday
While Democrats have scored notable successes in majority white states like Oklahoma, Missouri and NY State, in majority-white districts with many college graduates, there is one notable set of places where they have surprisingly struggled to make gains-Hispanic-majority districts. In … Continue reading The GOP House Majority Might Be Saved In The Unlikeliest Of Places
Heading into next year, Democrats will be defending the Senate map from hell. Twenty-five of the 33 Senate seats up next year’s Senate class are held by the party while Republicans will only be defending eight. This dangerous over-extension for … Continue reading Can Republicans Count On Partisanship To Carry The Senate Next Year?
American Watchmen 