There are no certainties in politics. Just ask Clinton circa 2016. But, for most of 2020 the presidential election has been defined by a steady Biden lead nationally and in battleground states across the country. Yet, that lead has shrunk … Continue reading Election Night Could Be Decided Early If These Two Things Happen
At the start of the summer Donald Trump’s campaign was battered with bad news. Polling showed him underwater among virtually every group except non-college educated whites, his Senate GOP counterparts were trailing in their quest to hold the Senate and … Continue reading How Trump Clawed His Way Back
For as long as I can remember, Florida has been considered the perennial battleground state. Like Ohio, the state has voted for the winning Presidential candidate since the new Millenium. But, the state known for Hanging Chads and giving George … Continue reading Is Florida Still A Battleground?
Democrats in Texas on Tuesday were supposed to be celebrating. Not fretting. But fretting they are now that a Democratic state senate district which supported Clinton by 12 points and has not had a Republican represent it since Reconstruction flipped … Continue reading Democrats Hope For A Wave Fueled By Hispanic Turnout Died In Texas Tuesday
While Democrats have scored notable successes in majority white states like Oklahoma, Missouri and NY State, in majority-white districts with many college graduates, there is one notable set of places where they have surprisingly struggled to make gains-Hispanic-majority districts. In … Continue reading The GOP House Majority Might Be Saved In The Unlikeliest Of Places
Heading into next year, Democrats will be defending the Senate map from hell. Twenty-five of the 33 Senate seats up next year’s Senate class are held by the party while Republicans will only be defending eight. This dangerous over-extension for … Continue reading Can Republicans Count On Partisanship To Carry The Senate Next Year?
Last week, Republicans in the Virginia House of Delegates floated a bill to change the state from a winner take all state in the Electoral College to one that doles out votes by Congressional district (similar to Nebraska’s). The idea … Continue reading Republicans Should Be Careful About Changing The Electoral College
It’s become an oddity in an era of bitter partisanship. The voter who will vote for a candidate with a D next to his/her name and an R next to his/her name. They’re ticket-splitters and they have become less and … Continue reading The GOP Senate Majority Rests on Ticket Splitting
At the start of the campaign some pundits and analysts predicted Donald Trump had the potential to reshape the political map. His appeal to blue collar workers but weakness among college grads could have put red states in jeopardy and … Continue reading Trump Is Shifting The Political Map
Polls have shown Donald Trump may be dragging down Republican Senate candidates in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. However, in the crucial swing states of Ohio and Florida, despite Trump trailing in almost every poll, Senators Rob Portman and Marco Rubio … Continue reading Rubio and Portman Point The Way Forward