Stop me if you have heard this before: Trump will lose, Biden is riding high in the polls, Trump campaign is pulling backs on ads, etc. Polling continues to show, minus outliers, Biden is polling extremely well in battleground states … Continue reading Three Reasons Why Trump Could Lose
At the start of the summer Donald Trump’s campaign was battered with bad news. Polling showed him underwater among virtually every group except non-college educated whites, his Senate GOP counterparts were trailing in their quest to hold the Senate and … Continue reading How Trump Clawed His Way Back
Over at CNN, Harry Enten wrote “Why it could be a Biden blowout in November.” The article checked all the boxes for evidence to back up the assertion along with the required caveat. But, on the other hand, while polls … Continue reading The 2020 Election Is A Coin Flip
To some, it will appear Trump’s Convention Bounce has faded. Or that Biden is building on his lead. But, a slate of recent battleground state surveys have shown Biden’s lead in these states is growing (at least in the polls) … Continue reading The New Divergence In The Polls
A number of recent surveys and reports of 2020 have raised eyebrows. While national and state level polls show Joe Biden with a steady lead over President Trump less than two months from Election Day, registration figures from a number … Continue reading Are Modern US Polls Equipped To Detect Electoral Changes?
As we get closer and closer to November, the number of polls proliferate, and everybody is spitting out statistical and anecdotal analysis, it is important to revisit how the lessons from 2016 exit polls should be kept in mind when … Continue reading Beware The Polls And Analysis
In recent weeks, despite national polls showing Biden maintaining his edge, most pundits consider the race has tightened. Indeed, the Biden campaign implicitly admitted the race was narrowing by having their candidate come out of the basement and campaign in-person. … Continue reading It’s Like Trump Suddenly Wants To Win
There is common perception among pundits and the public the polls were hugely wrong in 2016. To be fair, I have been extremely harsh on pollsters recently for past failures in 2018 and their samples for this year. I can … Continue reading What Would Happen If Today If The Polls Swung Like 2016
In Politico, Tim Alberta posits an interesting question about what the GOP stands for. Minus the usual liberal elitism of “I don’t get it” and then going to other elites (Frank Luntz) and acting like Luntz isn’t an elite the … Continue reading Republicans Have Ideas – The Media Just Refuses To See Them
The first night of the DNC wrapped up Monday and the featured speaker was none other than Michelle Obama. Michelle defended her husband and slammed Trump, for, well, being Trump. She called Biden the “man we need”. I don’t really … Continue reading Trump’s Epic Troll of Michelle Holds True
