Since the Fall of last year. every indicator has shown this November will be a wave election. What started as Biden incompetence related to the withdrawal in Afghanistan has morphed in the following months into rapid inflation and sky high … Continue reading Every Indicator Points To A Red Wave
Historically, elections can generally be predicted on three macro metrics, 1) Presidential approval ratings, 2) the direction of the country’s numbers and 3) the generic ballot. In recent years, a majority of voters have reported the country being in the … Continue reading The Generic Ballot Is Bad for Democrats, I mean REALLY BAD!!!
It is hard to not over emphasize how important redistricting is to the political fortunes of state and national political parties. Coming into the election cycle, Republicans had complete control to draw 187 district compared to a mere 75 for … Continue reading How Is Redistricting Going So Far???
Historically, midterm environments are difficult for the President’s party. Since 1980, only two midterms have seen the President’s party gain seats (1998 and 2002) and the gains were marginal. Contrast this with the results of other midterms like 1994 (-54 … Continue reading It’s Hard to Envision 2022 Getting Any Worse For Democrats
Republicans might be bummed at the sorry and divided state of their party. The party is beset by infighting, the fusionism Reagan was forged seems shattered and the Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress are bolstered by formerly Republicans … Continue reading Labor’s Struggles In England Point To A Silver Lining For GOP
The last two weeks of news have not proven to be kind to House Democrats political future. It didn’t look that way to start. Earlier last week, the Census Bureau released revised population figures likely to be used (once finalized) … Continue reading Democratic Prospects of Holding The House in 22′ Keep Getting Dimmer
It’s little secret the Donald Trump era for the GOP was both good and bad electorally. Trump furthered inroads with rural voters for the GOP in 2016 and 2020 but he also cost the party invaluable support in growing metro … Continue reading The TX – 6 Special Election Results Don’t Bode Well for Red District Suburban Democrats
By most approval polls Joe Biden is sailing high. Despite having a record low approval at 100 days (minus Trump who nobody else may ever reach), it is explained away as a result of partisanship and most voters being inelastic. … Continue reading 2021 Polling Is Telling Us The Industry Is Broken
Much has been made of the polls missing 2020, not just nationally but in close swing states. Digging deeper into the numbers, looking at individual precincts in recent months, has shown that Donald Trump massively increased his margins not just … Continue reading What Do We Make Of Trump’s Overperformance with Hispanics
Over at CNN, Harry Enten took an an early look at the 2022 midterms and finds for all the doom and gloom of a party in the throes of white nationalism, the GOP seems to be well positioned. Enten bases … Continue reading Early Signs Look Good For GOP Heading Into 2022
American Watchmen 