There are no certainties in politics. Just ask Clinton circa 2016. But, for most of 2020 the presidential election has been defined by a steady Biden lead nationally and in battleground states across the country. Yet, that lead has shrunk … Continue reading Election Night Could Be Decided Early If These Two Things Happen
Regardless of what happens with the 2020 election, predictions and prognostications will eventually turn to the 2021 election and its meaning for the much larger midterm elections which will be held in a Senate field tilted to Democrats and a … Continue reading Looking Past 2020 To 2021
Most national polls show Democrats set to utterly crush Republicans at almost every level of governance in November. Polls show Joe Biden is a clear favorite for the Presidency, Democrats lead in key Senate contests and by all rights Joe … Continue reading Some Signs Don’t Point To A Democratic Wave
Republicans are freaking out. Literally. Polls are showing Biden is set to win a bigger percentage of the popular vote than Clinton did in 1996 (and that was with a major third party candidate on the ballot). In Florida, Quinnipiac … Continue reading Revisiting the Polls vs. Horse Race Narrative
At the start of the summer Donald Trump’s campaign was battered with bad news. Polling showed him underwater among virtually every group except non-college educated whites, his Senate GOP counterparts were trailing in their quest to hold the Senate and … Continue reading How Trump Clawed His Way Back
Over at CNN, Harry Enten wrote “Why it could be a Biden blowout in November.” The article checked all the boxes for evidence to back up the assertion along with the required caveat. But, on the other hand, while polls … Continue reading The 2020 Election Is A Coin Flip
To some, it will appear Trump’s Convention Bounce has faded. Or that Biden is building on his lead. But, a slate of recent battleground state surveys have shown Biden’s lead in these states is growing (at least in the polls) … Continue reading The New Divergence In The Polls
A number of recent surveys and reports of 2020 have raised eyebrows. While national and state level polls show Joe Biden with a steady lead over President Trump less than two months from Election Day, registration figures from a number … Continue reading Are Modern US Polls Equipped To Detect Electoral Changes?
In recent weeks, despite national polls showing Biden maintaining his edge, most pundits consider the race has tightened. Indeed, the Biden campaign implicitly admitted the race was narrowing by having their candidate come out of the basement and campaign in-person. … Continue reading It’s Like Trump Suddenly Wants To Win
The surrounding horse-race narrative driven by the media around November is it will be a hard-fought nailbiter. The polls on the other hand all show a single trend line – Joe Biden is winning and not looking back. We can … Continue reading Why The Direction Of The Polls Should Worry Us
