It is hard to not over emphasize how important redistricting is to the political fortunes of state and national political parties. Coming into the election cycle, Republicans had complete control to draw 187 district compared to a mere 75 for … Continue reading How Is Redistricting Going So Far???
Though it might be an unpopular opinion, Donald Trump entered the White House with a larger mandate to f*** stuff up than Joe Biden has to change society dramatically. Which is truly amazing when you consider Joe Biden won the … Continue reading The Amazingly Mandateless Presidency
Hot off the heels of a successful 2020 house campaign, House Republicans see an electoral map tilted toward them in 2022 due to a successful 2020, President Trump’s ouster and a number of legislative victories down – ballot leaving them … Continue reading Republicans House Prospects In 2022 Are Looking Pretty Rosy
It runs counter to conventional narrative but last month the California GOP had its best election cycle in almost two decades. In a May special election, the GOP recaptured a seat they had lost in 2018 anchored in the LA … Continue reading California Republicans: Are They Back?
Leaving aside ideology, the make-up of the Supreme Court and legislative actions over the next two years, there is an argument to be made some Republicans should be hoping Trump loses in November, even if it gives Democrats unified control … Continue reading Should Republicans Be Hoping Trump Loses in November?
Up until November 6th, Republicans claimed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 would provide the party a message of success to run on in the era of Donald Trump. Instead, the evidence suggests Donald Trump actually did more … Continue reading Did The Tax Cuts Sink The Republican House Majority?
Significant debate in academic and political circles has been generated regarding the results of November. Some call it a wave, others call it a ripple. Depending on how you look at it and what you compare it to reasonable arguments … Continue reading Not All Waves Are Created Equal
While Democrats have scored notable successes in majority white states like Oklahoma, Missouri and NY State, in majority-white districts with many college graduates, there is one notable set of places where they have surprisingly struggled to make gains-Hispanic-majority districts. In … Continue reading The GOP House Majority Might Be Saved In The Unlikeliest Of Places
In the span of four hours of Anthony Kennedy retiring I have seen multiple articles on the midterms of 2010 and 2014 being the reasons for Democrats current dilemma, how cynical Mitch McConnell was in 2016, and how a new … Continue reading Anthony Kennedy’s Retirement Is A Gift To The GOP For More Than One Reason
As the dust from the California primary settles and the hot-takes from the results flow in (see mine here) the general consensus is that while things are looking up for Republicans the battle for the House remains an uphill slog. … Continue reading The Battle For The House Is Now A Toss-Up