Predictably, national polls have shown the Presidential race tighten as voter models and screens have been firmed up. For the first time in months the President actually took the lead in the RCP average in Florida. More importantly though the … Continue reading Why Trump’s Best Shot In The Rust Belt Remains Pennsylvania
Stop me if you have heard this before: Trump will lose, Biden is riding high in the polls, Trump campaign is pulling backs on ads, etc. Polling continues to show, minus outliers, Biden is polling extremely well in battleground states … Continue reading Three Reasons Why Trump Could Lose
At the start of the summer Donald Trump’s campaign was battered with bad news. Polling showed him underwater among virtually every group except non-college educated whites, his Senate GOP counterparts were trailing in their quest to hold the Senate and … Continue reading How Trump Clawed His Way Back
Over at CNN, Harry Enten wrote “Why it could be a Biden blowout in November.” The article checked all the boxes for evidence to back up the assertion along with the required caveat. But, on the other hand, while polls … Continue reading The 2020 Election Is A Coin Flip
In recent weeks, despite national polls showing Biden maintaining his edge, most pundits consider the race has tightened. Indeed, the Biden campaign implicitly admitted the race was narrowing by having their candidate come out of the basement and campaign in-person. … Continue reading It’s Like Trump Suddenly Wants To Win
There is common perception among pundits and the public the polls were hugely wrong in 2016. To be fair, I have been extremely harsh on pollsters recently for past failures in 2018 and their samples for this year. I can … Continue reading What Would Happen If Today If The Polls Swung Like 2016
The first night of the DNC wrapped up Monday and the featured speaker was none other than Michelle Obama. Michelle defended her husband and slammed Trump, for, well, being Trump. She called Biden the “man we need”. I don’t really … Continue reading Trump’s Epic Troll of Michelle Holds True
FiveThirtyEight is probably the biggest cheerleader for trying to explain how Biden’s lead is different than Clinton’s 80 days out from the election. I’ll let the readers decide for themselves. But, while it is true Biden has better favorable numbers … Continue reading Biden’s Lead Is Shrinking In The States: That’s Not Good
Leaving aside ideology, the make-up of the Supreme Court and legislative actions over the next two years, there is an argument to be made some Republicans should be hoping Trump loses in November, even if it gives Democrats unified control … Continue reading Should Republicans Be Hoping Trump Loses in November?
If you believe the polling numbers coming out of the battle for the White House and Senate it looks pretty unlikely Republicans will hold any branch of government come January. Poll after poll spit out from non-partisan and partisan pollsters … Continue reading What To Believe: The Polls or Horse Race News?