By most approval polls Joe Biden is sailing high. Despite having a record low approval at 100 days (minus Trump who nobody else may ever reach), it is explained away as a result of partisanship and most voters being inelastic. … Continue reading 2021 Polling Is Telling Us The Industry Is Broken
Much has been made of the polls missing 2020, not just nationally but in close swing states. Digging deeper into the numbers, looking at individual precincts in recent months, has shown that Donald Trump massively increased his margins not just … Continue reading What Do We Make Of Trump’s Overperformance with Hispanics
Though it might be an unpopular opinion, Donald Trump entered the White House with a larger mandate to f*** stuff up than Joe Biden has to change society dramatically. Which is truly amazing when you consider Joe Biden won the … Continue reading The Amazingly Mandateless Presidency
As the dust settles from 2020 (minus Trump’s last ditch attempts to stay in office) and more data becomes available the political and electoral future of America is becoming clearer. Much has been written about the class divide in America … Continue reading The Emerging New Electoral Landscape
On Wednesday, Democrats almost unanimously gave the go – ahead for their party to be led by the same disasters which led them to the slaughter earlier in the month. Nancy Pelosi will maintain her speaker’s gavel in January (she … Continue reading What Democrats House Leadership Says About American Politics
Neither party walked away from this November without major scars. Both were forced to analyze an unsettled electoral landscape and see the extent of their current electoral strategies. Compared to prior years, more states are up for grabs than ever … Continue reading The Most Unsettled Electoral Map Since The Dawn Of The New Millennium
For students of American history the Battle of Antietam during the American Civil War is analogous to the 2020 election. During the battle – credited as the turning point of the war in favor of the Union – more than … Continue reading The Antietam Election
Once you start filtering out the California and NY State impacts on the popular vote – and start looking at the results downballot you have to be shocked by the results. Not only did the blue wave fail to materialize, … Continue reading 2020 Was The Status Quo Election
As the election dust settles and we get a clearer picture of the results two things stand out. First, Trump’s loss clouds over the fact the GOP actually had a good election – particularly in the states. Secondly, and more … Continue reading The GOP Actually Had A Good Election: That Is Bad News For Pollsters
With early voting ending across the country today and reports of increased turnout all across the nation the stars seem aligned for a massive Trump defeat. After – all, conventional wisdom holds increased turnout signals the end of the GOP … Continue reading Why Increased Turnout Does Not Equal The End For Trump
American Watchmen 