In recent weeks Democrats have won a number of late deciding races due to absentee and provisional ballots being counted (see every district in Orange County) flipping blue AFTER election night. But these votes were all cast in a decidedly … Continue reading A Do-Over In The NC-9 Probably Won’t End Well For Democrats
Up until November 6th, Republicans claimed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 would provide the party a message of success to run on in the era of Donald Trump. Instead, the evidence suggests Donald Trump actually did more … Continue reading Did The Tax Cuts Sink The Republican House Majority?
Significant debate in academic and political circles has been generated regarding the results of November. Some call it a wave, others call it a ripple. Depending on how you look at it and what you compare it to reasonable arguments … Continue reading Not All Waves Are Created Equal
Believe it or not we still have several races uncalled two weeks after Election Day and one more race still to go. I want to focus on that race, the Mississippi Senate run-off. The sleepy affair was widely expected to … Continue reading What About The Mississippi Senate Run-off
The results of the midterms are hardly past us and with the dust starting to settle (unless you’re in Arizona or Mississippi) some basic lessons from the midterms can start to be extrapolated. Their will be a minority GOP in … Continue reading Six Takeaways From The Midterms
With everything surrounding the Brett Kavanaugh “Salem Witch Trials” and more and more Republican held seats “coming online” (parlance for competitive) the electoral landscape for the majority party is looking decidedly dark. Texas and West Virginia, of all places, are … Continue reading If The Polls Are Off It’s Good News For Republicans
Democrats have an eight point lead on the generic ballot. Yet, Trump is more popular than he has ever been. Over 50 Democratic challengers outraised their GOP counterparts. Yet, the RNC outraised the DNC and GOP SuperPACs raked in record … Continue reading The 2018 Midterms Are Not Looking Like A Wave Yet
While Democrats have scored notable successes in majority white states like Oklahoma, Missouri and NY State, in majority-white districts with many college graduates, there is one notable set of places where they have surprisingly struggled to make gains-Hispanic-majority districts. In … Continue reading The GOP House Majority Might Be Saved In The Unlikeliest Of Places
Last week, Paul Ryan announced he would be stepping down as Speaker at the end of his term. Speculation has been rampant about what this means for the midterms and who will succeed him (another Republican, Nancy Pelosi or another … Continue reading What Paul Ryan And Charlie Dent’s Retirements Say Of The Modern GOP
The Senate map is absolutely brutal for Democrats this year and no blue wave or enthusiasm gap can change this simple fact. Indeed, a new survey taken mere days before the PA-18 shocker shows just how bad things are for … Continue reading Republicans Still Have The Senate No Matter What Happens In The House
American Watchmen 