As we get closer and closer to November, the number of polls proliferate, and everybody is spitting out statistical and anecdotal analysis, it is important to revisit how the lessons from 2016 exit polls should be kept in mind when … Continue reading Beware The Polls And Analysis
There is common perception among pundits and the public the polls were hugely wrong in 2016. To be fair, I have been extremely harsh on pollsters recently for past failures in 2018 and their samples for this year. I can … Continue reading What Would Happen If Today If The Polls Swung Like 2016
In 2016, the states of New York and California gave Clinton a 3 million vote advantage in the popular vote. Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by around 2.8 million. Come 2020, those states will contribute millions to Biden’s … Continue reading As Bad As The Polls Are For Trump, They Show Why He Is Tough To Beat
It has been tough to be a Republican lately. Polls show Trump falling further behind in his bid for reelection, the GOP’s Senate majority in major peril, and the party’s chances of retaking the House almost nil after lackluster funding … Continue reading CA – 25’s Special Is The Good News Republicans Needed
On Saturday, Louisiana voters went to the polls to decide whether Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards deserved a second term, or whether a Republican should replace him. Because of the nature of the primary, there was little doubt Edwards would … Continue reading Is Louisiana A Microcosm of American Politics?
Over at Politico, John Austin of the Brookings Institution has an interesting theory. A strong economy will not help but actually hinder Trump. You can check out the full article there but at its core the article rests on the … Continue reading A Strong Economy Will Not Be Why Trump Lost
All things considered, I’d rather be a challenger than an incumbent hovering under 50 approval amid a roaring economy. A sprawling Democratic field should allow an incumbent President to focus on the merits of his tenure. But then again, no … Continue reading The State of Trump’s Reelection 18 Months Out
For as long as I can remember, Florida has been considered the perennial battleground state. Like Ohio, the state has voted for the winning Presidential candidate since the new Millenium. But, the state known for Hanging Chads and giving George … Continue reading Is Florida Still A Battleground?
It seems there really is something to the argument the Kavanaugh nomination is reaping electoral benefits for the GOP. Contrary to the prognostications of how suburban women in key Senate battlegrounds would turn away from the GOP over their steadfast … Continue reading The Kavanaugh Fight Has Helped Republicans
While Democrats have scored notable successes in majority white states like Oklahoma, Missouri and NY State, in majority-white districts with many college graduates, there is one notable set of places where they have surprisingly struggled to make gains-Hispanic-majority districts. In … Continue reading The GOP House Majority Might Be Saved In The Unlikeliest Of Places