With early voting ending across the country today and reports of increased turnout all across the nation the stars seem aligned for a massive Trump defeat. After – all, conventional wisdom holds increased turnout signals the end of the GOP … Continue reading Why Increased Turnout Does Not Equal The End For Trump
As the days leading up to the 2020 election shrink, prognosticators are already predicting the future. Diversity loving neo-liberals like Ronald Brownstein are already going full steam ahead on the GOP coalition’s xenophobic, rapidly shrinking base will find itself increasing … Continue reading Why Trump’s Populism (If Not Rhetoric) Is The Future Of The GOP
Predictably, national polls have shown the Presidential race tighten as voter models and screens have been firmed up. For the first time in months the President actually took the lead in the RCP average in Florida. More importantly though the … Continue reading Why Trump’s Best Shot In The Rust Belt Remains Pennsylvania
There are no certainties in politics. Just ask Clinton circa 2016. But, for most of 2020 the presidential election has been defined by a steady Biden lead nationally and in battleground states across the country. Yet, that lead has shrunk … Continue reading Election Night Could Be Decided Early If These Two Things Happen
Regardless of what happens with the 2020 election, predictions and prognostications will eventually turn to the 2021 election and its meaning for the much larger midterm elections which will be held in a Senate field tilted to Democrats and a … Continue reading Looking Past 2020 To 2021
Most national polls show Democrats set to utterly crush Republicans at almost every level of governance in November. Polls show Joe Biden is a clear favorite for the Presidency, Democrats lead in key Senate contests and by all rights Joe … Continue reading Some Signs Don’t Point To A Democratic Wave
As we get closer and closer to November, the number of polls proliferate, and everybody is spitting out statistical and anecdotal analysis, it is important to revisit how the lessons from 2016 exit polls should be kept in mind when … Continue reading Beware The Polls And Analysis
There is common perception among pundits and the public the polls were hugely wrong in 2016. To be fair, I have been extremely harsh on pollsters recently for past failures in 2018 and their samples for this year. I can … Continue reading What Would Happen If Today If The Polls Swung Like 2016
In 2016, the states of New York and California gave Clinton a 3 million vote advantage in the popular vote. Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by around 2.8 million. Come 2020, those states will contribute millions to Biden’s … Continue reading As Bad As The Polls Are For Trump, They Show Why He Is Tough To Beat
It has been tough to be a Republican lately. Polls show Trump falling further behind in his bid for reelection, the GOP’s Senate majority in major peril, and the party’s chances of retaking the House almost nil after lackluster funding … Continue reading CA – 25’s Special Is The Good News Republicans Needed
American Watchmen 