At this point in the run – up to Labor Day Weekend, the narrative of a GOP wave has flipped (at least among the MSM and punditry) to more of a puddle. You can also take the unhinged rantings of … Continue reading Almost The Entire Difference In The Generic Ballot Polls Can Be Explained In Their Samples
Stop me if you have heard this one before…. there is a lack of high quality polling for the 2022 election. What polling we do have is mostly party internals, mostly from the party in power, pointing to how things … Continue reading 2022 Is Looking Like The Doppelganger of Yesteryear’s Elections
It is hard to not over emphasize how important redistricting is to the political fortunes of state and national political parties. Coming into the election cycle, Republicans had complete control to draw 187 district compared to a mere 75 for … Continue reading How Is Redistricting Going So Far???
Much has been made of the polls missing 2020, not just nationally but in close swing states. Digging deeper into the numbers, looking at individual precincts in recent months, has shown that Donald Trump massively increased his margins not just … Continue reading What Do We Make Of Trump’s Overperformance with Hispanics
Neither party walked away from this November without major scars. Both were forced to analyze an unsettled electoral landscape and see the extent of their current electoral strategies. Compared to prior years, more states are up for grabs than ever … Continue reading The Most Unsettled Electoral Map Since The Dawn Of The New Millennium
For students of American history the Battle of Antietam during the American Civil War is analogous to the 2020 election. During the battle – credited as the turning point of the war in favor of the Union – more than … Continue reading The Antietam Election
As the election dust settles and we get a clearer picture of the results two things stand out. First, Trump’s loss clouds over the fact the GOP actually had a good election – particularly in the states. Secondly, and more … Continue reading The GOP Actually Had A Good Election: That Is Bad News For Pollsters
The results are in and while many Trump supporters (myself included) have to be disappointed with the results the sharp divergence from what happened with what the polls were saying (more on this in a later post once we have … Continue reading At This Point: Even If Biden Wins, Progressives Lose
With early voting ending across the country today and reports of increased turnout all across the nation the stars seem aligned for a massive Trump defeat. After – all, conventional wisdom holds increased turnout signals the end of the GOP … Continue reading Why Increased Turnout Does Not Equal The End For Trump
As the days leading up to the 2020 election shrink, prognosticators are already predicting the future. Diversity loving neo-liberals like Ronald Brownstein are already going full steam ahead on the GOP coalition’s xenophobic, rapidly shrinking base will find itself increasing … Continue reading Why Trump’s Populism (If Not Rhetoric) Is The Future Of The GOP
American Watchmen 