Republicans had high hopes heading into Tuesday night. While it was widely expected Republicans would easily carry the open 23rd CD a tightly contested battle was being fought in the 19th. Now, the usual caveats are in order here. First, … Continue reading NY 19 Is A Wake – Up Call To Republicans
In recent weeks, with a spate of optimistic polling for Democrats and Trump aligned Republicans winning their primaries (the love for Liz Cheney is optimistic considering the media fed the meme of Dick Cheney being the Emperor from Star Wars) has given the party renewed optimism. This optimism is not just fed by polling and candidate quality but also legislative successes (well, what they call successes). First, Democrats passed with a majority of GOP support a bipartisanship CHIPS bill. Then, right after, Democrats unveiled their reconciliation passed Inflation Reduction Act (Note: It just passed and no respectable economist expects it … Continue reading Oh, How One Can Hope
Stop me if you have heard this one before…. there is a lack of high quality polling for the 2022 election. What polling we do have is mostly party internals, mostly from the party in power, pointing to how things … Continue reading 2022 Is Looking Like The Doppelganger of Yesteryear’s Elections
Since the Fall of last year. every indicator has shown this November will be a wave election. What started as Biden incompetence related to the withdrawal in Afghanistan has morphed in the following months into rapid inflation and sky high … Continue reading Every Indicator Points To A Red Wave
Historically, elections can generally be predicted on three macro metrics, 1) Presidential approval ratings, 2) the direction of the country’s numbers and 3) the generic ballot. In recent years, a majority of voters have reported the country being in the … Continue reading The Generic Ballot Is Bad for Democrats, I mean REALLY BAD!!!
It is hard to not over emphasize how important redistricting is to the political fortunes of state and national political parties. Coming into the election cycle, Republicans had complete control to draw 187 district compared to a mere 75 for … Continue reading How Is Redistricting Going So Far???
Historically, midterm environments are difficult for the President’s party. Since 1980, only two midterms have seen the President’s party gain seats (1998 and 2002) and the gains were marginal. Contrast this with the results of other midterms like 1994 (-54 … Continue reading It’s Hard to Envision 2022 Getting Any Worse For Democrats
On Saturday, voters went to the polls in Texas for three mayoral run – off elections in McAllen, Fort Worth and Arlington. In all three, to conservatives pleasant surprise, all three right leaning candidates came out on top. By far, … Continue reading Republicans Overperformance In Local Races Continues In Texas
Republicans might be bummed at the sorry and divided state of their party. The party is beset by infighting, the fusionism Reagan was forged seems shattered and the Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress are bolstered by formerly Republicans … Continue reading Labor’s Struggles In England Point To A Silver Lining For GOP
The last two weeks of news have not proven to be kind to House Democrats political future. It didn’t look that way to start. Earlier last week, the Census Bureau released revised population figures likely to be used (once finalized) … Continue reading Democratic Prospects of Holding The House in 22′ Keep Getting Dimmer
American Watchmen 