This weekend I came across an article from Doug Schoen hypothesizing DeSantis peaked too early in the run-up to 24 and comparing him to another, once frontrunner, former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. As with any article it has its strong … Continue reading Did DeSantis Peak Too Early?
For all the heartbreak Republicans have seen this election, there are some bright spots in late breaking contests. In prior years, wave elections or not, Republicans have seen late breaking contests go against them from California to NY State. But … Continue reading 2022 A Reversal From Prior Elections
Shellacking. Disaster. Wasteful. All those terms come to mind when it comes to the 2022 midterms where the GOP underperformed. At least at the national level. As of this writing the GOP is going to lose a net of one … Continue reading Recapping the 2022 Midterms
Last week, I wrote about reading into the tea leaves of the early vote. Now, I want to take a counterfactual approach and lay out some reasons why we should always be skeptical of the early data using some notable … Continue reading Reading Into The Tea Leaves Part II
It’s become fairly common for pundits, analysts and all types of political junkies to read into early voting numbers based on a whole host of things; party affiliation of returned ballots, gender, location and so on. While the proliferation of … Continue reading Reading Into The Tea Leaves
I feel like virtually every article I have recently written (last few months) is about how the polls are underestimating Republicans. This is based on solid polling misses from 2014 onward which have found numerous Republicans in competitive contests when … Continue reading Are The Polls Now Overestimating Republicans???
Back in 2021, Harry Enten of CNN noted in the run-up to the Virginia gubernatorial race, how many voters disapproved of the President who were undecided in that contest. In November, Virginia voted for a Republican for Governor and gave … Continue reading The Ever Shifting Narrative Of The 2022 Midterms
I feel a tad awkward focusing on a single poll when I have been so harsh on them but in this case the poll – the most recent WashPo/ABC survey – fits two molds. First – off, it screens Likely … Continue reading Battlegrounds Tilt Right
I’ve been harsh on the polling industry, and until I see some sort of methodological changes and admittance their industry has issues I will continue to be. I have written numerous articles on the polling industry’s struggles and likelihood this … Continue reading The Polls Need To Be Right This Year
At this point in the run – up to Labor Day Weekend, the narrative of a GOP wave has flipped (at least among the MSM and punditry) to more of a puddle. You can also take the unhinged rantings of … Continue reading Almost The Entire Difference In The Generic Ballot Polls Can Be Explained In Their Samples